Well, Abbott seem to have got the job cuts rolling this year, unfortunately.
What movement in jobs do people think we will see in other big pharma companies this year and why? Will any mid to large pharma companies be growing in size personnel wise?
I don't think we'll see any of the big companies growing, but we might see them fair better than some of the big companies in other industries. The connected world of the 21st century means companies don't need so many feet on the street.
Kind of makes you wonder what everyone's going to do?
Interesting question, Paul. To answer your directly: companies must remain growing, their shareholders demand it. To me, the interesting nuance is where in the world the majority of this growth will occur.
I think Steve9 is also on the right track. Pharma is in a great spot, compared to the stagnant and propped-up manufacturing sector in North America. We might also look to other industries, particularly information technology, for a clue as to what will happen next.
A dozen years ago, India was in the midst of an IT revolution, but much trepidation and little precedent existed. Fast forward: Accenture has more employees in India than anywhere else. GE has a giant innovation centre with 2000 PhD students. IBM will soon have more employees in India than any other country. Foreign trained Indian nationals are returning in spades with new technologies and a motivation to lift their country to the standard of living they have seen abroad.
That's not to say that outsourcing or off-shoring of jobs is the culpable party with regards to lay-offs in matured markets. And as an aside, even India is now suffering as eager cost-cutters move to even cheaper locals like Vietnam, and Singapore, so cost-competition cannot be the only factor affecting job location. Rather, I believe we increasingly find ourselves occupying a truly global world. One that will be dominated by a knowledge-based economy. Intrinsically, this depends less on traditional shipping routes, giant warehouses, transportation infrastructure, and protectionist quotas or tariffs than the GDP-growth-through-manufacturing that spawned from the industrial revolution.
As education standards in developing countries rise - hand in hand with broadband internet access - an emphasis on innovation gains momentum, and a demographic tailwind spurs competition and productivity, suddenly competitive Fortune 500 firms cannot concern themselves with nationality. Unfortunately, global discrepancies do still exist in terms of quality of life. Thus cost-of-living, and wages, are dependent on physical location. As the products we create are more and more dependent on the caliber of thought behind them I believe growth will occur where competitive wages intersect with the highest quality education and thought.
To this end, BRIC countries, as well as other unique markets like Israel and Taiwan present very interesting opportunities for further analysis in terms of growth, in terms of productivity or knowledge-based jobs, and ideally both.
Some great points Stelerix. Whilst we hear a lot about job cuts in the mature markets there is also a lot of job creation in the emerging markets as you point out. I wonder if, on balance, pharma is remaining stable or even still growing in terms of number of personnel, but we are just seeing a shift in geographic location of those personnel?
Certainly a shift in the geographic location of R&D folks - anywhere but Sandwich right now.
:(
I had a nice chat with a health economist this morning, but he wasn't bullish on the situation improving much in developed markets (see youtube video). At least not until there are some big breakthroughs in personalized medicine, but admittedly that's someways off.
Health economists never tend to be bullish in my experience. Pragmatic maybe, bullish no!
Fair enough!
We expect personnel growth rates to be flat to declining overall, especially in the US and Western Europe. The reality is that investors in small/mid-sized pharma/biotech companies will push for smaller companies and increased outsourcing to CROs, CMOs, and consulting firms who, in turn, will continue to do more work with fewer full-time employees. So yes there is a concurrent geographic shift AND a decrease in the overall full-time employee numbers. This is all anecdotal, by the way, and and based on what we're hearing from colleagues.
A lot of pharma folks who have been displaced will go into these outsourcing areas (especially consulting) or drop out of the industry entirely. This is not unique to pharma, as companies in other industries (i.e., IT) have seen their former employees entering other professions, such as real estate, teaching, etc.
Interesting comments, LacertaBio. That is something that we've seen as well, anecdotally. Competitive companies are increasingly focusing on their core competencies by outsourcing larger parts of their supply chain.
Intriguing, indeed, when you to begin to pontificate on where these people might go. Your suggestion of consulting and outsourcing makes a lot of sense, as does moving to new professions entirely. It is especially great to see instances like pharmaphorum, wherein our friend Paul has successfully managed to leverage his interest in pharma with emerging personal technologies and small business routes that might better complement his strengths, interests, aptitudes. Of course I am just using this as a salient example, but I think that is also a trend we might see some more of.
LacertaBio - I do think there are cyclical trends with people going into the consulting side / other areas during times of recession and layoffs. It also creates a lot of freelancers / one person consultancies, but most of these folks prefer to work as part of a larger organisation so filter back in when the going gets better.
Stelerix - thanks for the mention
I agree that the digital age has made it easier for people to pursue their own business ideas (but noting my comments above I still think you need the right mindset) or even pursue small sideline business ideas around a regular job. We're all becoming multi-taskers!
If pharma folks do drop out of the industry I'd be interested to see where they do go right now. Don't see many sectors growing...
Seems to be a lot of growth in medical technology, e.g areas like mobile health. Good transferable skills from pharma too I would have thought.
Paul said
Seems to be a lot of growth in medical technology, e.g areas like mobile health. Good transferable skills from pharma too I would have thought.
True, but I'm not sure pharma people are best placed for these jobs. A tech or medical background from outside pharma is probably preferable.
Seems to be eerily calm in the pharma jobs sector right now....calm before (another) storm?
I think many sectors are in "wait and see" mode right now. There still appears to be great uncertainty about the direction of the economy, with see-saw good news / bad news days. Interesting times!
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